Brentry

[Spet0789]

Wait and see the migratory changes arising out of global warming in another 5 to 10 years. Free movement of people I suspect will remain a hot issue.

I suspect you are correct there.

The pressure from Western demographics will be far faster and in the opposite direction.

[Spet0789]

To be fair, the linked research only covered England and Wales, but doubt Scotland and NI are any different.

When looking at the 2016 referendum result on a UK constituent country basis only England and Wales voted to leave the EU both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain. Hence I'd be surprised if the number of constituencies in Scotland and NI which think leaving was a mistake wasn't even closer to 100% given the starting position.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_ ... um/results

I agree but I try to be scrupulously fair in how I use data.

[Lootman]

But how many of those 647 sets of voters will decline to vote for either Labour or the Tories - the two pro-Leave parties?

That single issue opinion poll is unlikely to affect how people vote in a general election.

Your problem is not that you cannot win a new vote but that it is very unlikely that you will ever get one.

Interesting that you think that Labour is pro-leave. I'd have characterised them as pro-rejoin but not now as we don't want to upset the leave voters in the red wall seats who defected to the Tories in 2019. Given our FPTP electoral system remainders/rejoiners would likely vote Labour all other things being equal so attracting red wall leave voters by downplaying the chances of rejoining in the near term makes sense.

I am not aware that it is official Labour policy to play dishonest games like that. Is there any official Labour policy statement that says it is "pro-rejoin"? But that it will keep quiet about it for now to avoid alarming the voters?

[XFool]

Wait and see the migratory changes arising out of global warming in another 5 to 10 years. Free movement of people I suspect will remain a hot issue.

I suspect you are correct there.

The pressure from Western demographics will be far faster and in the opposite direction.

Western demographics? You'll have to explain that...

[ursaminortaur]

I suspect you are correct there.

The pressure from Western demographics will be far faster and in the opposite direction.

Western demographics? You'll have to explain that...

The low fertility rates in Western Europe which have been below the replacement level for decades.

[XFool]

Western demographics? You'll have to explain that...

The low fertility rates in Western Europe which have been below the replacement level for decades.

That's why I asked the question! I seem to be missing something here...

Unless by "in the opposite direction", the OP does not mean geographic direction.

[1nvest]

The low fertility rates in Western Europe which have been below the replacement level for decades.

That's why I asked the question! I seem to be missing something here...

Unless by "in the opposite direction", the OP does not mean geographic direction.

Just the view of a remainer re-joining optimist. Not having to adopt the Euro, not having to deal with potentially a billion or more migrants due to global warming effects having open access to the UK via EU free movement of people rules. Being out of the EU doesn't block migration into the UK to preserve population numbers, rather can just make it more selective. Not having to level ones own economy to a broader average (across multiple EU member states), at varying points in economic cycles, but where interest rates and policies can be set accordingly/precisely with/to local (UK) conditions. Which has the tendency to value-add rather than being a drag-factor (such as having broader economic factors (interest rates etc.) otherwise set at levels that totally conflicts with the local/domestic conditions.

[Spet0789]

The low fertility rates in Western Europe which have been below the replacement level for decades.

That's why I asked the question! I seem to be missing something here...

Unless by "in the opposite direction", the OP does not mean geographic direction.

My point was that Western demographics (the ageing population) will create a need for immigration long before climate change creates a push for emigration.

[XFool]

My point was that Western demographics (the ageing population) will create a need for immigration long before climate change creates a push for emigration.

But I would have thought that should already be a factor (particularly since Brexit, the pandemic). If not yet: When and why?

[Spet0789]

My point was that Western demographics (the ageing population) will create a need for immigration long before climate change creates a push for emigration.

But I would have thought that should already be a factor (particularly since Brexit, the pandemic). If not yet: When and why?

Well we already do have a need for immigration to fill all the job vacancies!

[XFool]

...Um. I still feel I'm missing something!

If this was the case now and it was having the claimed effect now - how come people were so against immigration that they voted for Brexit? Plus, what explains the current immigration policies of the current UK government? Should we be expecting a sudden change in attitudes?

[ursaminortaur]

...Um. I still feel I'm missing something!

If this was the case now and it was having the claimed effect now - how come people were so against immigration that they voted for Brexit? Plus, what explains the current immigration policies of the current UK government? Should we be expecting a sudden change in attitudes?

Because for years prior to, during and after the referendum they have been lied to. Remember the referendum claim that Turkey was about to join the EU and 12 million turks would be coming to the UK and Farage's breaking point poster.

[XFool]

...Yes of course I do. But was that not playing up and playing upon existing fears of and antipathy towards immigration?

My query was, and remains, where is the evidence for this growing tidal wave of enthusiasm for immigration in the UK? If real it would seem to mark a sea change in attitudes.

[ursaminortaur]

...Yes of course I do. But was that not playing up and playing upon existing fears of and antipathy towards immigration?

My query was, and remains, where is the evidence for this growing tidal wave of enthusiasm for immigration in the UK? If real it would seem to mark a sea change in attitudes.

You mean like this

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/uk-attitudes ... -pub01-115

UK attitudes to immigration among most positive internationally
Public opinion has shifted a huge amount in a relatively short space of time
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The UK public have among the most positive attitudes to immigration, according to a new study that ranks the country at the top of an international league table as the most accepting of new arrivals.

Of 17 countries, the UK is least likely to say the government should place strict limits on the number of foreigners who can come to the country or prohibit people from coming altogether. 31% of the UK public hold this view, compared with 35% of people in Germany and 39% in Canada – the next-most accepting countries on this measure.

At the same time, 68% of the UK public think we should either let anyone come to who wants to or let them come as long as there are jobs available – the highest of any nation.

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Before the referendum, listen to Daniel Hannan's fanciful description of life outside the EU.

Staggering how much he got wrong

AiY(D)

[1nvest]

Before the referendum, listen to Daniel Hannan's fanciful description of life outside the EU.

Staggering how much he got wrong

AiY(D)

The vote was in 2016, but in 2020 we were still in the EU. Even appointing a new PM took 7 months, only for them to be fired within days. The woes aren't so much driven by having left, but rather a consequence of massively incompetent governance. Parliament isn't fit for purpose. Once could manage a Empire that spanned the globe, nowadays ... well just look at how Sunak has simply wasted/lost 100's of £££ billions.

[ursaminortaur]

Before the referendum, listen to Daniel Hannan's fanciful description of life outside the EU.

Staggering how much he got wrong

AiY(D)

The vote was in 2016, but in 2020 we were still in the EU. Even appointing a new PM took 7 months, only for them to be fired within days. The woes aren't so much driven by having left, but rather a consequence of massively incompetent governance. Parliament isn't fit for purpose. Once could manage a Empire that spanned the globe, nowadays ... well just look at how Sunak has simply wasted/lost 100's of £££ billions.

We officially left the EU on the 31st January 2020 but then entered a transition period which lasted for the rest of that year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit

Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] portmanteau of "British exit") was the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) at 23:00 GMT on 31 January 2020 (00:00 1 February 2020 CET)
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Following the British exit on 31 January 2020 the UK entered a Transition Period for the rest of 2020.

[mc2fool]

Before the referendum, listen to Daniel Hannan's fanciful description of life outside the EU.

Staggering how much he got wrong

AiY(D)

Yeah, he didn't predict a global pandemic or Russia invading Ukraine.

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Before the referendum, listen to Daniel Hannan's fanciful description of life outside the EU.

Staggering how much he got wrong

AiY(D)

Yeah, he didn't predict a global pandemic or Russia invading Ukraine.

That being the case can you explain why the UK's energy prices are so much higher than the EU's?

Source


AiY(D)

[Sorcery]

Before the referendum, listen to Daniel Hannan's fanciful description of life outside the EU.

Staggering how much he got wrong

AiY(D)

Yeah, he didn't predict a global pandemic or Russia invading Ukraine.

That being the case can you explain why the UK's energy prices are so much higher than the EU's?

Source


AiY(D)

As the twitter feed it's 33p/kwh after the subsidy from the UK government which is probably to fund the useless windmills and solar. So 33p/kwh if we didn't have to have all the very expensive windfarm subsidies. The full twitter thread is much more balanced.