The Lemon Fool

The UK coronavirus dashboard now allows you to get vaccination rates in your area.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2. ... 1617904463

In my area, Leeds, it shows 57.9% of the adult population have had a first dose, and 35% have had 2 doses.

For the UK as a whole, the 1st dose level is 71.2% and 41.1% for 2 doses.

I am amazed how different these figures are for a big area like Leeds. I had thought that Leeds was doing well on vaccinations, but it seems not.

Assuming the city has not been deliberately disadvantaged, the two possible explanations are;

1. Leeds has a very young population and so has large numbers who have not yet been offered the jab, or
2. Leeds has a large proportion of anti-vaxxers / vax hesitants who are not taking up the jab.

I don't find the second one particularly credible.

I have not looked at other comparable areas to compare.

Any thoughts?

FD

There are at least two additional possible explanations.

3. Leeds has been accidentally disadvantaged.
4. Random variation. Somewhere is going to be highest and somewhere else is going to be lowest. The existence of areas that are below average is almost guaranteed. Searching for a cause is a good idea but there may not be one.

9873210 wrote:There are at least two additional possible explanations.


4. Random variation. Somewhere is going to be highest and somewhere else is going to be lowest. The existence of areas that are below average is almost guaranteed. Searching for a cause is a good idea but there may not be one.

While I agree in principle with this, the large discrepancy in the Leeds data suggests more than random chance.

John

Surely a more illuminating comparison would be with other, similar conurbations e.g. Manchester, Liverpool etc, rather than with the country as a whole.

Leeds has c60% more than average in the 20-30 age group, and slightly lower than average 40 ups.

Minority ethnic 19% vs 14% UK average.

So, more who are in less urgent need of a jab, and probably more who are 'reluctant'.

V8

88V8 wrote:Leeds has c60% more than average in the 20-30 age group, and slightly lower than average 40 ups.

Minority ethnic 19% vs 14% UK average.

So, more who are in less urgent need of a jab, and probably more who are 'reluctant'.

V8

Yes, I think it is mainly demographics. I found some data on the Leeds population, which shows the effect of the >60,000 students in the 3 universities.

https://observatory.leeds.gov.uk/population/

If I take the 13.3% shortfall in 1st doses relative to the UK average, that is roughly 100,000 people.

I think students will be the majority of these.

The data also shows lower than average numbers in the older age groups, which may explain most of the rest.

Ethnic minorities are 19% in Leeds, below the national average of 20%, according to the data in the link, which is the ONS!

FD

Leeds, like other big cities, has more than its fair share of young people. A more meaningful comparison would be with other metropolitan areas offering a rich cultural and nightlife. And Leeds has a large and reputable university, and I believe at least one rebranded poly.

Can you. for example, get the covid stats site to provide stats for all University towns? Or indeed, all towns with real (Russell Group) Universities? Or alternatively for the biggest 10 or 20 cities or somesuch?

Here are the vaccination rates for various UK cities:



All the major cities have vaccination rates below the UK average, which I am assuming is mainly down to demographics.

I cannot find data for London as a whole, just individual boroughs.

I was wrong about Leeds - they are doing rather well against other major cities, despite their huge student population.

I struggled to find anywhere with rates higher than the UK average!. In the end I found Eastbourne, the retirement capital of Britain, but even there the 1st dose rate was less than 1% above the UK average.

Where are all the people who have been vaccinated?

funduffer wrote:Where are all the people who have been vaccinated?

I presume they are the affluent elderly white middle classes who live in the small towns, villages and beyond the city boundaries in the suburbs. More geographically widespread so harder to count as a group. More likely to be older. Also better educated so less likely to be vaccine hesitant.

If I wanted to be controversial, I could say Tory voters are being given priority

It is a bit odd as you would have thought that those in cities would be:
A) easier to reach with vaccines
B) more likely to spread disease due to closer proximity.

Gryff

funduffer wrote:The UK coronavirus dashboard now allows you to get vaccination rates in your area.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2. ... 1617904463

In my area, Leeds, it shows 57.9% of the adult population have had a first dose, and 35% have had 2 doses.

For the UK as a whole, the 1st dose level is 71.2% and 41.1% for 2 doses.

......

FD

Interesting. My area has similar figures to yours.

Out of curiosity, I checked out rates of a couple of friends in completely different parts of London:

46.1% and 25.1%
54.4% and 34.3%

I am starting to wonder about the national figures!

funduffer wrote:Here are the vaccination rates for various UK cities:



All the major cities have vaccination rates below the UK average, which I am assuming is mainly down to demographics.
[...]
Where are all the people who have been vaccinated?

I checked my local figures

72% and 40.7%.

So pretty much national average.

John

My local figures in a well-to-do bit of rural Wiltshire are still below the national average.

First dose 69.4%
Second dose 42.8%

I checked my old address in Wokingham too and the figures there are 68.3% and 33.8%

I too am wondering where all the vaccinated people are who are causing the national average stated today of 71.2% and 41.1%

murraypaul wrote:

funduffer wrote:Here are the vaccination rates for various UK cities:



All the major cities have vaccination rates below the UK average, which I am assuming is mainly down to demographics.
[...]
Where are all the people who have been vaccinated?

All 4 of your smaller examples are in Conservative constituencies; is this a clue?

77ss wrote:All 4 of your smaller examples are in Conservative constituencies; is this a clue?

Older people tend to be more likely to vote conservative, as are rural areas, so I think you are seeing effect rather than cause.

The vaccination programme has been age-driven, so areas with an older population will have higher rates than those with a younger one.

As a smaller effect, wealthier areas will have higher rates, as will areas with a 'whiter' population, areas with fewer parents with young children, areas with higher proportions of people who speak English as their main language, areas with higher proportions of Christians, and areas with higher proportions of people with more educational qualifications. (From the ONS vaccination hesitancy surveys)

Here (West Devon - as rural as it gets in England) - 78.1% / 52.6%.

The properly rural parts have the fewest young people.

funduffer wrote:Here are the vaccination rates for various UK cities:



All the major cities have vaccination rates below the UK average, which I am assuming is mainly down to demographics.

I cannot find data for London as a whole, just individual boroughs.

I was wrong about Leeds - they are doing rather well against other major cities, despite their huge student population.

I struggled to find anywhere with rates higher than the UK average!. In the end I found Eastbourne, the retirement capital of Britain, but even there the 1st dose rate was less than 1% above the UK average.

Where are all the people who have been vaccinated?

Thanks for doing that, it obviously took some time to do.

I got lucky since, after my own post code, the next one that sprang to mind for me was the one for my late parents (and my childhood home). That came up as above average at 71.9% 1st dose, 45.7% both doses. Interesting to find that these above average places seem quite rare. It also goes to show how localised the results are since that data is for Cheshire East that is, at its closest point, only about 8 miles south of Manchester city centre and Manchester, according to the data above, has some appallingly low rates.

- Julian

Julian wrote: Interesting to find that these above average places seem quite rare.

I would guess that, by placename, most places are above average, it is just that you've never heard of them, so wouldn't look them up, and they have small populations, so don't affect the average much.
Any major city, or place that most people would search for, is probably below average, and has such a massively higher population that it brings the average down a large amount.
For example, Manchester has a population of ~550k, while the whole of Devon is only ~800k.

You can actually search for this on the Coronavirus website.

Go to: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... Manchester

Then scroll to the bottom, the 'Vaccination uptake by area' section, and choose 'Lower Tier LA' and click the first/second dose column header twice to sort descending.

The largest areas that beat the national 71.2% first dose rate are Cornwall and Dorset.
(The top five worst areas are all London boroughs.)

murraypaul wrote:

Julian wrote: Interesting to find that these above average places seem quite rare.

I would guess that, by placename, most places are above average, it is just that you've never heard of them, so wouldn't look them up, and they have small populations, so don't affect the average much.
Any major city, or place that most people would search for, is probably below average, and has such a massively higher population that it brings the average down a large amount.
For example, Manchester has a population of ~550k, while the whole of Devon is only ~800k.

Devon 1.2 million according to statista. One of England's biggest populations excluding those classified as metropolitan.

Your stats may be rural areas only. Though I'm not sure that quite works either: Plymouth has well north of quarter of a million, and Exeter and Torbay each have around half that, which would on the face of it leave rather less than 800k for the rural parts. Maybe it's that government map, which curiously lumps Exeter in with the rural parts while separating out (slightly smaller) Torbay.