Assessing level of Covid Risk - getting it in proportion

[Clariman]

This is a personal post, so feel free to move on.

How does one assess the risk of catching Covid in specific situations? Here is my dilemma.

We are getting vaccinated later this month and likelihood things will open up where we live about 3 to 4 weeks later. That sequence of events suits me fine because our antibodies should have built up by then and the prevalence within society will have dropped further by then. All good.

However, our local MSP who is part of the government here in Scotland, has replied to an email from my other half to say that we can travel outside our local authority to provide childcare for our grandchildren, given their specific set of circumstances (one parent is unwell - not covid, a baby etc.). So Mrs C would get in the car this afternoon given half a chance. Obviously I would love to see them all and help out too, but it would be awful to catch Covid at this point with the vaccine being a few weeks away.

When I used to do a bit of Project Management, I'd look at the likelihood of a risk occurring and the impact of it occurring.

Impact - If I got Covid, my weight - and to some extent age - would make me at risk of becoming seriously ill. That worries me. How likely to be seriously ill? Who knows.

Likelihood - probably Low. DIL has been at home looking after baby and toddler with only outdoor contact with one other person, socially distanced. Son has been off work a few weeks, so has not been near anyone else for a while. As a health-worker he has already been vaccinated and is getting his second dose today. Baby has not been anywhere. Toddler is at nursery 2 days a week and has been back for 2 weeks. What is the current likelihood of a toddler getting Covid and/or passing it on?

My natural cautious inclination would be not to travel. However, I need to take a balanced common-sense view here. We haven't see our new grandchild and it would be good to help them out in the circumstances.

Any thoughts on how to assess this?

Clarima

[redsturgeon]

I'd agree with your assessment of a very low likelihood of catching Covid in these circumstances.

Basically you are just at risk from the toddler passing on an infection to you, that seems highly unlikely from all the data.

But unfortunately a low risk versus a potentially catastrophic outcome is not a great risk assessment to have to make.

Could your wife not go to stay for a couple of weeks on her own and is there any way you could get the vaccine sooner?

Difficult choices that really only you and your family can make.

Hope you work something out.

John

[Clariman]

Looking at latest stats the covid rates where Master C lives, is below 50 per 100,000 [just corrected a typo]

So my risk would be pretty low overall I think.

[absolutezero]

Just based on numbers across the entire population.

For a average person under 70 and with no major health problems.
Low risk of catching it.
Low risk of being seriously ill.

Moderator Message:
Have deleted a comment that might lead to political discussion which was not my intention from my original post. Clariman

[bluedonkey]

As others have said, it's a very personal decision. I would be more concerned about giving it to a vulnerable relative rather than having it myself (in my 60s, one jab 3 weeks ago).

[vrdiver]

Spanner-in-the-works time.

You've mentioned that your DIL and son haven't seen anybody, and the toddler is the only one in contact with others, but is this really, really true? I don't mean that they've been having secret rave parties or anything like that, but when I talk to neighbours (in the street) they all confirm very confidently that they haven't broken any rules / seen anyone etc. etc. but then something crops up and it turns out there was "just this one time" exception. And so it goes on.

Young children may not catch/transmit the virus, but what about their clothes, or the environment where handover occurs? What about shopping trips or other activities?

You mentioned risk assessment, and the obvious risk of calamity to you personally in the event that you picked up the virus, but what about the impact on your family? What if they were to blame themselves?

There are two adults in the house with the kids. Appreciate one is not well, and in normal times I'd not think twice were I in your shoes, but getting Covid now would feel doubly unfair with your vaccination due so soon.

As you mentioned in the opening, it's personal. But it's also complex trying to figure out what to do with such limited information re the real risks involved. Good luck with whatever your decision turns out to be.

VRD

[Dod101]

Can the family you would be staying with get tested (for what that is worth) before you visit? It does not seem difficult in Scotland to go to one of the test centres and get the test. My daughter and her husband for instance live in Edinburgh and have been more than once to the test centre at the Airport. Drive through I think and the result in a couple of days. If all clear I would then proceed with your plans. Mind you if the family live in Clackmannanshire or Glasgow I would think twice about it. If Inverness no problem.

Dod

[Clariman]

Can the family you would be staying with get tested (for what that is worth) before you visit?

Thanks Dod. We wouldn't be staying. More likely a day trip to take the toddler out for the afternoon. I guess tests might be possible.

I really don't know what to do.

[Dod101]

If you are not staying I rather think that I would take a deep breath, don a mask and go, incorporating handwashing and so on when you are there. It would need to be the worst luck for you to catch it in these circumstances. You do not even have to enter their house?

Dod

[zico]

I'd be very cautious as the toddler will have had close physical contact with all those at his nursery for 2 weeks, and you don't know the risk factors for the other families of children at the nurseries. If you look after the toddler for an afternoon, then you'll be in close physical proximity to probably the highest risk member of their family, in terms of passing on infections to you.

Turning the situation round on its head, how would DIL's family feel if either of you were to become infected as a result of seeing them?

Is there a compromise solution where you can help their family out by doing other time-consuming tasks that they need doing but which don't involve you getting close to any of them for an extended period? For example, shopping, gardening, perhaps cleaning (keeping to separate rooms, and with open windows).

[1nvest]

My basic approximation is a third of people who catch Covid don't even know they've had it. A third get mild symptoms. A third more severe symptoms. Of that later group a third need medical assistance, of which a third end up in hospital and a third of those in more critical care. Formerly a relatively high proportion of those faded but as the virus has become better understood there's now better treatment such that only a third end up dying. With the vaccine that number might reduce by two thirds after the first jab, higher after the booster. The vaccine doesn't prevent contraction, rather it alleviates the risks following contraction, less inclined to be hospitalised/die.

Sooner or later you're going to contract it one way or another, The risks from contraction are however relatively small, that are made more minuscule when virus protection is added on top. You may be just as prone to contraction from going into a grocery store to pick up a tin that another who was shedding had nearby coughed/sneezed or touched or from the escalator handrail that they had touched.

Personally waiting for a small risk to become a more minuscule risk is not risk-free in itself (such as contraction from elsewhere such as a grocery shop). I'd be inclined to don a plastic face mask + surgical mask, along with hand washing etc. combination and take my chances. And also hope that I didn't have a fatal accident whilst driving there.

Mum, 89, had a fall back in January, after a hip op the next day she was doing OK and recovering/physio in hospital, but then a few days later tested positive for Covid. She remained on the same ward for a further 4 days and at one point upon phoning it was apparent that her bed had been moved to closer to the nurses desk - as she was restless/confused. Still the same ward as other mostly elderly with hip ops. She was then moved to a isolation care home for the remainder of the total 14 days isolation period i.e. another 10 days. Fortunately she expressed no symptoms whatsoever, but given the lapse initial 'isolation' I'm little surprised that she contracted it in hospital. Such are the general risks.

[Mike4]

Any thoughts on how to assess this?

A couple of thoughts...

1) If you don't visit, you definitely won't catch COVID as a result

2) If you visit and stay outside, the chances of catching COVID are vanishingly small.

3) If you visit and catch COVID and succumb as a result, they might possibly blame themselves for your demise.


That's about it really. I don't suppose that helps....

[servodude]

. Mind you if the family live in Clackmannanshire or Glasgow I would think twice about it.

Great advice! Even more so given the pandemic!

Anyway...

As it stands it seems young children are about half the risk of people in general https://outline.com/9M9r8d

and you can greatly mitigate risk by keeping outdoors and observing good hygiene (which tbh is probably difficult with a toddler )

so as you have these concerns presently, what would it take to alleviate them enough that you would be able to be able to make the most of the trip?
- if it would be playing on your mind for the day (and possibly the following weeks) I'd probably put it off till after your jab

- sd

[Mike4]

- if it would be playing on your mind for the day (and possibly the following weeks) I'd probably put it off till after your jab

- sd

^^^This^^^

SD puts his finger on the nub of it here in my view.

If you don't go, you'll know for certain that whatever happens, going was not the cause.

[AsleepInYorkshire]

About four weeks ago my father-in-law fell on the ice and snapped ligaments in both knees. They operated to repair them the following day. He's been in hospital since. Today he tested positive for Covid 19. He was vaccinated the day before his fall so we remain positive and he's currently not showing any symptoms.

However, my better half visited him on Monday this week. Her Dad tested negative on Wednesday and she's had a lateral flow test today which was negative. She normally has two per week as this increases the statistics of the tests being accurate. But only had one this week. So the test is only about 30% reliable.

She now has to self isolate for 10 days. She's not shown any symptoms and did have her vaccination on Wednesday this week.

It think it shows how quickly events can unfold.

I caution great caution.

AiY
PS ... if I do a Snorvey and check out for several months please assume I have left the building

[88V8]

...... my weight - and to some extent age - would make me at risk of becoming seriously ill.

You'll have seen this report from the US linking severe outcomes to weight?

“We were shocked to see such a high correlation between a country’s proportion of overweight adults and its deaths from COVID-19,” said Tim Lobstein, one of the report’s authors in an interview with The Guardian. “There are rich countries with low levels of overweight, like Japan and South Korea, and they have very low COVID death rates. Equally, there are lower-income countries like South Africa and Brazil, where overweight is now affecting more than half the population, where we see high COVID-19 death rates. We now know that an overweight population is the next pandemic waiting to happen.”
https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/o ... ccine-cdc/

You'll probably be OK out doors.
But is it really necessary?

V8

[Clariman]

Just thought I'd post an update. We haven't visited. I think Master C is sensible about these things too, so they haven't asked us to come to give some help. Although we could travel for essential childcare, it isn't essential if you've not been asked.

[csearle]

If I got Covid, my weight - and to some extent age - would make me at risk of becoming seriously ill.

Methinks you overestimate your vulnerability in these regards. I recall you were not unhealthily proportioned and looked fairly spring-chickenish. C.

[Clariman]

If I got Covid, my weight - and to some extent age - would make me at risk of becoming seriously ill.

Methinks you overestimate your vulnerability in these regards. I recall you were not unhealthily proportioned and looked fairly spring-chickenish. C.

Very kind. Some of that may be true, but obesity is certainly one of the negative factors. It is hard to assess the personal risk, because it is such a new disease.

[csearle]

It is hard to assess the personal risk, because it is such a new disease.

Yes and I think one of the most concerning aspects is this mysterious group of people, with members in most age ranges, that seem to be particularly susceptible to CoViD-19.

If age and comorbidities were the only factors that made one vulnerable then it would be fairly easy to shield these people whilst the vaccination is progressing apace. But as it is this group, possibly because of some aspect of their genetic make-up, don't even know they are at risk.

Chris