Snap lockdown in Western Australia

[Newroad]

Morning All.

For anyone interested - looks like the relevant quarantine hotel worker was doing the right thing in recording their movements.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-31/ ... a/13106968

It's quite a hard lockdown - effective late the same day - masks at all times outside, one hour exercise etc. Usual initial panic at the supermarkets etc.

Regards, Newroad

[Sobraon]

Wow, I am a little lost for words at the way the Perth government have reacted. Very specific action and straight forward direction to people. Even specifying who needs to be tested based on where they were at specific times. I am envious of the efficiency.

[servodude]

Wow, I am a little lost for words at the way the Perth government have reacted. Very specific action and straight forward direction to people. Even specifying who needs to be tested based on where they were at specific times. I am envious of the efficiency.

It's easy to be in top of things when you're ready for it and have the resources available
- I do expect some to consider their reaction severe
- but at the going rate it would appear to be 5 days of inconvenience every six months or so?

- sd

[Dod101]

They have had no cases since about April so an isolated case like this is something that can be handled fairly easily especially when they have no doubt been planning for just such an eventuality for about six months. WA is fairly isolated even from the rest of Australia in normal times so it should not be too difficult to get this under control.

Dod

[Lootman]

Wow, I am a little lost for words at the way the Perth government have reacted. Very specific action and straight forward direction to people. Even specifying who needs to be tested based on where they were at specific times. I am envious of the efficiency.

One persons efficiency is another person's overkill. If ever there were a situation for a localised, targeted response this was it. Instead they went all-in out of what can only be regarded as paranoia. Isolate this one guy, track down those who stayed in the hotel, and that is sufficient.

Sledgehammers and acorns comes to mind. The world has gone mad.

[Newroad]

Hi Lootman.

I think I can comment on your, Servodude's and Dod's responses at the same time, though they were different in nature.

Efficiency and preparedness are necessary, but not sufficient. You also need to learn, then have the courage of your convictions. The WA government, to use the words in McGowan's memo, "crushed it" last time - and only something that does its best to ensure the same outcome again is what they would regard as success. My take is that they have benefited from doing so, all things being equal, since last time.

So, they've learned from the NSW, Victoria, SA, Victoria again, NSW again and Queensland outbreaks (not to mention Italy then the rest of Western Europe then the US etc). They've learned to go early and go hard (NSW second response being a slight outlier, though there was a similar level of detail in the contract tracing etc). They also have the courage of their convictions - not backing down even from a well funded (and initially Federal Government supported) challenge in the Federal Court by powerful business interests.

Hence, they've made the call early and spoken clearly and directly to the people as Sobraon noted. They're probably right IMO, even if arguably overfully careful - the tail risk of being wrong is severe.

I further note, Lootman, you never answered my thrice asked question in a different thread - what would it take to make you conclude your broader take on this sort of thing had ultimately proven wrong?

Regards, Newroad

[Lootman]

Efficiency and preparedness are necessary, but not sufficient. You also need to learn, then have the courage of your convictions. The WA government, to use the words in McGowan's memo, "crushed it" last time - and only something that does its best to ensure the same outcome again is what they would regard as success. My take is that they have benefited from doing so, all things being equal, since last time.

You would have to define "crushed it" there. If the only criterion is zero cases and you really do not care about any other factor, then maybe. But I do not accept that "all things are equal". Put another way, this is ultimately a political question and not a science experiment. When in doubt, ask the people, and we have seen anti-lockdown riots and protests in various countries.

Lootman, you never answered my thrice asked question in a different thread - what would it take to make you conclude your broader take on this sort of thing had ultimately proven wrong?

I have certainly answered that question before in general. Again you would need to define terms like "right" and "wrong, or "worked" and "not worked" As above one can come up with one answer if you look only at the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. And another answer if one instead looks at the bigger picture.

I think Australia (and New Zealand) are interesting because they represent one extreme of approach i.e a "tunnel vision" focus only on the stats and nothing else. And not care that you crush individual freedom as a result. At the other extreme you have got countries and areas that basically carried on as if nothing was happening and, in at least some cases, had bad stats.

And in the middle somewhere is probably the most balanced solution, where remedies are local, targeted and flexible, responding to data and the level of support from the voters.

All I can say is that I would not want to be in Australia right now, essentially trapped in the country and barred from leaving, even if you are a foreign national and your family overseas is having emergencies as Servodude was lamenting the other day. I'd rather take my chances (somewhere between 1 and 3 in 1,000, by all accounts).

[Julian]

Wow, I am a little lost for words at the way the Perth government have reacted. Very specific action and straight forward direction to people. Even specifying who needs to be tested based on where they were at specific times. I am envious of the efficiency.

One persons efficiency is another person's overkill. If ever there were a situation for a localised, targeted response this was it. Instead they went all-in out of what can only be regarded as paranoia. Isolate this one guy, track down those who stayed in the hotel, and that is sufficient.

Sledgehammers and acorns comes to mind. The world has gone mad.

As you note people have different perspectives. When I heard from a friend living in Brisbane that they had just gone into a 3 day lockdown a month or so ago I, exposed only to my UK experiences, was totally confused about what possible rationale there could be for a 3 day lockdown and how that could possibly break transmission chains when symptoms can take 5 to 7 days to emerge if they ever emerge at all. Once it was explained to me that these short sharp snap lockdowns are to help with contact tracing I have begun to be intrigued by how effective they might be. Although no one has specifically told me this I am assuming that these lockdowns (which I have been explicitly told are for contact tracing purposes) are aimed at "freezing" the contact networks of infected people so that the contact tracers aren't chasing an ever expanding contact tree in the few days after a small number of infections are identified.

This seems to me to be an interesting additional tool in the stop-Codid-19 toolbox. Is it effective in Australia? No idea but I assume determined efforts are being made over there to gather data and make informed judgements on that. Could it ever be effective in the UK? Right now I would say the answer is such an emphatic no that it's almost laughable (and tragic); the number of infections is way, way too high for pretty much any contact tracing to make much difference but for instance on 14th July last year(*) 398 cases were reported in the UK [ Source: The data table here - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases ]. Had we had a capable contact tracing system in place at the time rather than the outsourced Dido Harding catastrophe, and had we done a snap 3-5 day lockdown at some point during the summer while cases were still in the hundreds in order to amplify the effectiveness of the contact tracing as a one-off exercise, could that have made a difference to where we find ourselves now and have reduced the number of deaths we have had at relatively low economic and emotional cost? Might it even have shifted the landscape dramatically by keeping the number of replication events over the summer and autumn far lower such that the Kent variant never arose or was supressed before it became dominant? I have absolutely no idea, I have no access to alternative realities, but it is something that I do wonder about.

- Julian

(*) That date chosen because it was close to the lowest but not reporting a Saturday or Sunday result that tend to be lower

[Lootman]

Funnily enough, I returned to the UK from living in Perth City centre last August.

Others here who live in Australia have reported that travel in and out of Australia is not allowed. Was that not the case last August?

Or is it that you can leave but then you cannot return?

[Newroad]

Hi Lootman.

I still can't see an actual answer either above or previously, e.g.

"... Again you would need to define terms like "right" and "wrong, or "worked" and "not worked" As above one can come up with one answer if you look only at the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. And another answer if one instead looks at the bigger picture ..."

but rather, that you cannot specify a set of conditions that others would reasonably understand, or choose not to. So be it, it's not a straightforward question, but anyone who in good faith wanted to answer it could give it a reasonable go.

At to the questions of yourself and others, there have been tight restrictions for getting back into Australia, numbers controlled by each state (I think WA has been around 500 people per week for much of the period). NSW has been taking the most of the weight in this respect - but this has still meant a build-up over time of 30-40K Australians wishing to get home from overseas. There is no doubt this latter point is contentious, but if you read closely, there are two sides to the argument, as always.

On "crushed it", I think it's fairly clear in definition from the context and statements of the WA Premier - eliminated from the local community and controlled at the border.

Finally, I think having RVF making a personal statement makes the prevailing anecdotal position clear - given a choice of control or elimination approaches in a Western economy, he, and I think most, would prefer the elimination approach - even if punctuated by short, sharp lockdowns as needed. Thus far at least, it appears both the loss of life and impact to the economy favours this approach.

Regards, Newroad

[Dod101]

My comments were certainly not to belittle the WA approach as overkill. As it happens I know Perth WA reasonably well as I visit a stepson there when I can. I was there exactly at this time last year. They are taking a short sharp approach and can afford to having, as RVF says, had very pleasant and apparently fairly normal time since they got their outbreak under control. They obviously do not want to see that effort go to waste.

Dod

[Newroad]

Understood, Dod.

They weren't interpreted as an attempt to belittle - as I said, your response and Lootman's were different in nature.

I do think you underplayed, perhaps inadvertently, the second and third points I later made - learning and then having the courage to do what you believe is needed. Being capable of doing it is only the first part.

Regards, Newroad

[Lootman]

My comments were certainly not to belittle the WA approach as overkill. They are taking a short sharp approach

In the context of this local news item it is "short" certainly.

But Australia as a whole has actually adopted strict restrictions as a long-term solution. It sealed its borders early and it is still not yet clear when it will open them up again, even to the extent that the UK currently still has open borders. As I understand it Qantas has not run an international schedule for months now and has no plan to before July 2021 at the earliest.

Again, whilst the UK and the US have developed vaccines and have already rolled out millions of jabs, Australia seems to have a passive "wait and see" approach and is ignoring the one obvious path out of this problem. It is easy to imagine a situation in 6 months time when you can freely travel between Europe and North America, but Australia will still be off limits because its population has had only minimal exposure and immunity to the virus and is begging the UK and US for supplies.

The two strategies seem to be "cut ourselves off from the world" versus "get the people vaccinated". Or paranoia versus "do something about it".

Hi Lootman.I still can't see an actual answer either above or previously

I have laid out my position enough times for anyone who cares to know where I stand. If I can't shoehorn it into the exact answer you want then you should still be able to assess my viewpoint, which is essentially that this is a political issue and not ultimately a scientific issue.

But of course we cannot discuss politics here so we end up talking about only the technical side of it.

[XFool]

Efficiency and preparedness are necessary, but not sufficient. You also need to learn, then have the courage of your convictions. The WA government, to use the words in McGowan's memo, "crushed it" last time - and only something that does its best to ensure the same outcome again is what they would regard as success. My take is that they have benefited from doing so, all things being equal, since last time.

You would have to define "crushed it" there. If the only criterion is zero cases and you really do not care about any other factor, then maybe. But I do not accept that "all things are equal". Put another way, this is ultimately a political question and not a science experiment. When in doubt, ask the people, and we have seen anti-lockdown riots and protests in various countries.

"zero cases" sound pretty good to me! What "other factor" could improve on that?

Lootman, you never answered my thrice asked question in a different thread - what would it take to make you conclude your broader take on this sort of thing had ultimately proven wrong?

I have certainly answered that question before in general. Again you would need to define terms like "right" and "wrong, or "worked" and "not worked" As above one can come up with one answer if you look only at the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. And another answer if one instead looks at the bigger picture.

Ah. That elusive (and undefined) "bigger picture" again.

I suspect, in a pandemic, it's attention to detail that gets results.

I think Australia (and New Zealand) are interesting because they represent one extreme of approach i.e a "tunnel vision" focus only on the stats and nothing else. And not care that you crush individual freedom as a result.

How mean! Not to say "extreme".
Let me see: Give me the "individual freedom" of possibly landing up with a breathing tube down my neck; or choose "tunnel vision" and "statistics" and the freedom to live a reasonably normal life. Tough!

Decisions, decisions...

[Lootman]

You would have to define "crushed it" there. If the only criterion is zero cases and you really do not care about any other factor, then maybe. But I do not accept that "all things are equal". Put another way, this is ultimately a political question and not a science experiment. When in doubt, ask the people, and we have seen anti-lockdown riots and protests in various countries.

"zero cases" sound pretty good to me! What "other factor" could improve on that?

The answer to that question is whatever the voters say it is.

So if the voters agree with you that the infection stats are 100% of the issue and nothing else matters, then you have a point. However the recent riots in Rotterdam over lockdown, and the widespread flaunting of lockdown rules in the UK, both point to the voters being a lot less single-minded than you on this issue. Or at least that it varies by nation with Australia being at one extreme.

I think you also assume that Covid is the number one political priority for every voter. Again I would disagree. For me it is the number three priority, which implies that I think some "solutions" to Covid are worse than the disease, if they interfere with my top two priorities.

[XFool]

I have laid out my position enough times for anyone who cares to know where I stand. If I can't shoehorn it into the exact answer you want then you should still be able to assess my viewpoint, which is essentially that this is a political issue and not ultimately a scientific issue.

And that is where you are exactly wrong! A real world, or natural event, cannot but be in essence a "scientific issue", to use your terminology.

Real world events cannot be tackled simply as just a "political issue". Those who think it can generally seem to be the same people pushing various fairy stories about the pandemic. IMO.

[Lootman]

I have laid out my position enough times for anyone who cares to know where I stand. If I can't shoehorn it into the exact answer you want then you should still be able to assess my viewpoint, which is essentially that this is a political issue and not ultimately a scientific issue.

And that is where you are exactly wrong! A real world, or natural event, cannot but be in essence a "scientific issue", to use your terminology.

Real world events cannot be tackled simply as just a "political issue". Those who think it can generally seem to be the same people pushing various fairy stories about the pandemic. IMO.

Obviously I disagree.

The definition of the problem may indeed be a technical matter. But what to do about it has to involve the priorities of the people, and not just a panel of narrow "experts". It is ultimately a matter of what the people think should be done, and will tolerate.

So if the West Australians are fine with this, then great. Doesn't mean another location would choose the same policy.

[GoSeigen]

Let me see: Give me the "individual freedom" of possibly landing up with a breathing tube down my neck; or choose "tunnel vision" and "statistics" and the freedom to live a reasonably normal life. Tough!

Decisions, decisions...

Or cut me off from my family support and lock me down 24/7 with a family (spouse actually) I can't bear to be around along with the individual freedom to choose instead to walk into a deserted stretch of ocean wearing a backpack filled with rocks?

As you so succinctly say: Decisions, decisions...


GS

[XFool]

Let me see: Give me the "individual freedom" of possibly landing up with a breathing tube down my neck; or choose "tunnel vision" and "statistics" and the freedom to live a reasonably normal life. Tough!

Decisions, decisions...

Or cut me off from my family support and lock me down 24/7 with a family (spouse actually) I can't bear to be around along with the individual freedom to choose instead to walk into a deserted stretch of ocean wearing a backpack filled with rocks?

Sounds like you'd have been better off in Australia!

[Newroad]

Hi Lootman.

Whatever other points you choose to make (or more typically obfuscate when it gets tough) you can't seem to help yourself but to resort to ad-hominem arguments and related language. Your latest effort is the gratuitous use of "begging" in

"It is easy to imagine a situation in 6 months time when you can freely travel between Europe and North America, but Australia will still be off limits because its population has had only minimal exposure and immunity to the virus and is begging the UK and US for supplies."

I can't imagine that situation, as CSL is planning to produce at least 30M (I have read as high as 50M) doses onshore, in Melbourne I believe, of the AZN vaccine under license. This is something they are quite competent to do, with vaccinations starting from March. So, both gratuitous and apparently wrong - even the odd Belgium-like slip-up (or the effects of the actual Belgium slip-up) would likely only delay the timeline slightly.

I've now found a recent link: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... ck-exports

Regards, Newroad