Omicron variant

[XFool]

So what if it came from Botswana? It has zero relevance to the (suggested) lack of serious consequences in South Africa.

...Which may, or may not, have "zero relevance" to its consequences in the UK.

[servodude]

So what if it came from Botswana? It has zero relevance to the (suggested) lack of serious consequences in South Africa.

...Which may, or may not, have "zero relevance" to its consequences in the UK.

I see what you did there!

[Lootman]

Yes but South Africa is also saying that serious illness is down 29% with this variant over the previous one. And that is comparing populations of identical ages.

Now that might be partly due to more of that population having being vaccinated. But then who cares why the rate of serious illness is going down as long as it is going down?

In gross terms yes that is great

It means that where you would have 1000 severly sick cases for a number of infections you now only have 710 - that is truely a great thing

The problem is that the number of infections we can expect at any one time looks to be about 20 times higher (for current vaccination coverage and social activity)

so where you were dealing with X severely sick cases at any one time you now have (0.71 * X) * 20 or ~14 times as many ( the Gauteng data admissions recorded 18 times)
- it's the incapability to cope with that surge at a practical level that makes this "less severe" variant a big concern

but yes the reduction in severity looks to be very welcome
- we just shouldn't consider that in isolation

In theory perhaps but that doesn't seem to be happening anywhere right now.

And there is a limit to that trend because, if Omicron spreads the way it is claimed, then it will not be that long before everyone who can catch it, will catch it. And at that point it is spent.

So short term keep an eye out, sure. Although if it is really that contagious then the restrictions we adopted in 2020 won't necessarily help a lot. There is a sense that this is a last throw of the dice by the virus. And whilst we may see a temporary increase in illnesses, it will also blow itself out in the process.

Maybe most voters would accept one last deadly hurrah from Covid if we can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. I cannot see the voters being willing to deal with Covid any more after its second anniversary. Instead they will just take that 2 in 1,000 risk. People are done with this.

[MrFoolish]

So what if it came from Botswana? It has zero relevance to the (suggested) lack of serious consequences in South Africa.

...Which may, or may not, have "zero relevance" to its consequences in the UK.

Well you tell me how tracing it back to Botswana tells us anything of interest?

I can at least tell you that doctors in SA (including the one who made the original report) seem pretty relaxed about Omicron. In a recent interview, she said she thought the UK were over-reacting. She might be wrong, but I suspect she knows more about Omicron than any of us on this board.

[XFool]

In theory perhaps but that doesn't seem to be happening anywhere right now.

And there is a limit to that trend because, if Omicron spreads the way it is claimed, then it will not be that long before everyone who can catch it, will catch it. And at that point it is spent.

That's funny. I could almost swear some people told us 'it' was "spent" in Summer 2020. Some, possibly even earlier...

Let's keep our fingers and toes crossed and hope that, by Summer 2022, we will actually begin to discern some genuine light at the end of the tunnel.

[XFool]

I can at least tell you that doctors in SA (including the one who made the original report) seem pretty relaxed about Omicron. In a recent interview, she said she thought the UK were over-reacting. She might be wrong, but I suspect she knows more about Omicron than any of us on this board.

She likely knows more than any of us on this board do about Omicron in South Africa.

[Lootman]

In theory perhaps but that doesn't seem to be happening anywhere right now.

And there is a limit to that trend because, if Omicron spreads the way it is claimed, then it will not be that long before everyone who can catch it, will catch it. And at that point it is spent.

That's funny. I could almost swear some people told us it was "spent" in Summer 2020. Some, possibly even earlier.

There have been people dismissing it prematurely, of course. There have also been people thinking this will never end. I suspect there are even some who don't want this to end because they are perversely enjoying it.

I suspect the truth is someone in the middle. But it also matters what the people will tolerate in terms of further restrictions to their liberty. Luckily our government seems to be aware of this and is taking a measured response.

[servodude]

...Which may, or may not, have "zero relevance" to its consequences in the UK.

Well you tell me how tracing it back to Botswana tells us anything of interest?

I can at least tell you that doctors in SA (including the one who made the original report) seem pretty relaxed about Omicron. In a recent interview, she said she thought the UK were over-reacting. She might be wrong, but I suspect she knows more about Omicron than any of us on this board.

Dear Mr Foolish

First I should thank you for extracting a portion of my post to quote; always a pleasure to see a notifcation

If you can go back a look at it in its entiretly you might notice that I was commenting generally on the fact that comparisons between the UK and Africa have been previously made in this pandemic. The point I was hoping to be understood was that there are significant differences in the demographics that make unadjusted and naive comparisons specious and foolish.
Specifically that the age profile of a population needs careful consideration before attempting to draw any comparison.
As the data for South Africa had already been given in an earlier post I supplied the figures for its neighbour Botswana, from where this variant is thought to originate.

Apologies if this confused, befuddled or aggrieved you

Seasons Greatings
- sd

[MrFoolish]

That's funny. I could almost swear some people told us it was "spent" in Summer 2020. Some, possibly even earlier.

There have been people dismissing it prematurely, of course. There have also been people thinking this will never end. I suspect there are even some who don't want this to end because they are perversely enjoying it.

I suspect the truth is someone in the middle. But it also matters what the people will tolerate in terms of further restrictions to their liberty. Luckily our government seems to be aware of this and is taking a measured response.

Indeed, it is hard to argue against a precautionary approach if you look at covid in isolation. I don't stress about wearing a mask in the shops. But I hear from so many people who can't get medical appointments because everything revolves around covid these days. A student I know is suffering from depression because his student life has been pretty much wiped out by restrictions. There is risk either way.

[Mike4]

In other news, we're starting to see some lab work on how omicron works. It's very early days but it seems to grow 70x better in bronchus tissue and 10x worse in lung tissue. Nothing in vivo yet, but that would suggest a continuation of how delta got better at transmitting, you get a lot more virus particules in the upper respiratory tract :

https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/14 ... 6999137281

A day or so ago I had very mild symptoms of some chest congestion and coughing. Little more than a passing slight sore throat and, mainly, chesty wheeziness. The sort of thing I'd hardly even bother about normally. Who knows?

Your lateral flow test will give you a pretty big clue.

LFTs give quite a few false negatives but few false positives AIUI, so should you get a positive result, it is probably right.

[dealtn]

A day or so ago I had very mild symptoms of some chest congestion and coughing. Little more than a passing slight sore throat and, mainly, chesty wheeziness. The sort of thing I'd hardly even bother about normally. Who knows?

Is it infectious?

[MrFoolish]

Well you tell me how tracing it back to Botswana tells us anything of interest?

I can at least tell you that doctors in SA (including the one who made the original report) seem pretty relaxed about Omicron. In a recent interview, she said she thought the UK were over-reacting. She might be wrong, but I suspect she knows more about Omicron than any of us on this board.

Dear Mr Foolish

First I should thank you for extracting a portion of my post to quote; always a pleasure to see a notifcation

If you can go back a look at it in its entiretly you might notice that I was commenting generally on the fact that comparisons between the UK and Africa have been previously made in this pandemic. The point I was hoping to be understood was that there are significant differences in the demographics that make unadjusted and naive comparisons specious and foolish.
Specifically that the age profile of a population needs careful consideration before attempting to draw any comparison.
As the data for South Africa had already been given in an earlier post I supplied the figures for its neighbour Botswana, from where this variant is thought to originate.

Apologies if this confused, befuddled or aggrieved you

Seasons Greatings
- sd

I'm happy to see comparisons of where the different demographics might give different outcomes. You mention age. It was mentioned in this thread that 1. SA has a younger population. 2. Omicron seems to pass more through younger people. So wouldn't that make it more of a problem in SA compared to here, not less?

[servodude]

In theory perhaps but that doesn't seem to be happening anywhere right now.

And there is a limit to that trend because, if Omicron spreads the way it is claimed, then it will not be that long before everyone who can catch it, will catch it. And at that point it is spent.

That's funny. I could almost swear some people told us 'it' was "spent" in Summer 2020. Some, possibly even earlier...

Let's keep our fingers and toes crossed and hope that, by Summer 2022, we will actually begin to discern some genuine light at the end of the tunnel.

The spent idea requires lasting immunity - hopefully that happens and hopefully omiron infection helps against delta (and others)

The super spreader events I've seen looked at for Omicron do point to it being crazy infectious; so I don't doubt it will get very decent penetration everywhere it lands

The main risk is collateral damage; treatment that cannot be given for other stuff because this consumes too much in the way of health resources

- sd

[servodude]

I'm happy to see comparisons of where the different demographics might give different outcomes. You mention age. It was mentioned in this thread that 1. SA has a younger population. 2. Omicron seems to pass more through younger people. So wouldn't that make it more of a problem in SA compared to here, not less?

We just don't know yet..
Young people have a higher social "surface area"
There are proportianally more of them in Africa
Older people are generally prioritised by vaccine programmes
- where's the balance between those contributing factors? we don't know yet

are those the only contributing factors - hell no!
can you choose a contributing factor and point to it as "the reason" - yeah I suppose one could but that's a bit silly

More will become apparent in due course and we'll know where we stand
- or somewhere will accidentally offer up their elderly population as guinea pigs so we can find out


- sd

[MrFoolish]

Top comment on BBC News Have Your Say (seems plausible and genuine):

I am an NHS consultant.

More people are losing their life from inadequate cancer treatment, cardiovascular interventions, delays in thrombolysis for stroke than from what appears (on early analysis) to be a less pathogenic form of Covid.

We mustn’t let this, admittedly terrible pandemic, prevent us for caring for all of those who have treatable conditions and deserve much better.

[9873210]

Thanks for the reminder. I'd forgotten that he advised this when all this vaccination started. Makes a lot of sense, unless someone else medically qualified knows better.

Lots of medically qualified persons think otherwise. Who do you think wrote the standards?

What is needed is actual data. An observational study in multiple countries or regions would be worthwhile, you probably don't need to worry much about placebo effects.

[1nvest]

Yesterday they claim a tidal wave of Omicron spread.

Today https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59640792

Isn't that no more than a further example of the incompetence of those in the Boris Party - i.e. those who brought us Brexit - than anything to do with reality?

Better a bungler that at least respects democracy, at least they might try to respect the democratic decision rather than dictate.

[Hallucigenia]

And there is a limit to that trend because, if Omicron spreads the way it is claimed, then it will not be that long before everyone who can catch it, will catch it. And at that point it is spent.

But Gauteng suggests that we could be looking at a 100x increase in cases before that point is reached. So you could be looking at hospitalisations at 71% of 100x the starting point - and the health system will collapse long before that point.

[servodude]

Top comment on BBC News Have Your Say (seems plausible and genuine):

I am an NHS consultant.

More people are losing their life from inadequate cancer treatment, cardiovascular interventions, delays in thrombolysis for stroke than from what appears (on early analysis) to be a less pathogenic form of Covid.

We mustn’t let this, admittedly terrible pandemic, prevent us for caring for all of those who have treatable conditions and deserve much better.

Indeed!
I absolutely agree.
One guaranteed way to prevent folk from being treated is to overrun your hospitals with COVID patients (which seems preferable to choosing to recover treatment from COVID patients?)
- I'll suggest that early action to avoid that would be a good thing - especially for people ill with other things
...and build more capacity/headroom in to the system going forward


-sd

[servodude]

And there is a limit to that trend because, if Omicron spreads the way it is claimed, then it will not be that long before everyone who can catch it, will catch it. And at that point it is spent.

But Gauteng suggests that we could be looking at a 100x increase in cases before that point is reached. So you could be looking at hospitalisations at 71% of 100x the starting point - and the health system will collapse long before that point.

I thought we'd covered that already - I'm genuinely not sure where the tricky part is