Omicron variant

[XFool]

So getting a booster to better protect/avoid contracting Omicron, a relatively mild/non-fatal version that might otherwise have protected you from other more deadlier variants ... is a key government priority.

There comes a point where one must reasonably conclude that an apparent serial failure to understand is less a failure to understand than a requirement to not understand, pursuant to an ideological cause.

[Hallucigenia]

There's a category left out here: fully vaccinated, no previous infection but with an incurable lung disease or any of the others in the clinically highly vulnerable category. Are we any more at risk of dying if we get the omicron variant than anyone else? Probably a rhetorical question at this stage. Having spent last Christmas on my own, I had been looking forward to joining parties on both sides of the family (including in-laws) on Christmas and Boxing Day, but am now wondering whether it is worth the risk. I did see most of my immediate family last weekend. One would think negative LFTs would be sufficient protection, certainly much better than vaccine passports, but this suggests that unless we are hermits, we are bound to get infected..

It's really tough, the timing is horrible - we only need another 3 weeks of data to get a much better idea of the severity of omicron, but we don't have that for making decisions about Christmas. All you can do is assume it behaves exactly like other variants, until there's enough evidence that it behaves different. Which we have in support of the hypothesis that it's much more transmissible in Western populations at current levels of vaccination. We don't have much evidence one way or the other for severity - the news out of Gauteng suggests it may be reducing the chances of a bad outcome, in the sense of reducing the Russian roulette from say 4 bullets to 3 bullets, but we just need time before we can know. Anyone who thinks they *know* what omicron does at this stage is just a bloviating idiot. It's certainly too soon to know about deaths, or about its effects on long Covid.

OTOH I think we've probably seen enough (like the explosion of hospitalisations in Gauteng, and the doubling in London) to be able to say that it's going to be really tough in hospitals in January, both with loss of staff to isolation etc and from huge demand. So you should probably factor that into your calculations.

There will be a lot more data coming in the next few days, at the moment you have to wait and see to some extent - hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

There has been what seems to be a deliberate silence as to the status of the one known death so far but perhaps that is because one should not draw conclusions from one incident .

Exactly - what dealtn said. You can't deduce anything from one person, epidemiology is all about large numbers aside from the privacy aspect. It's always really important to know what the demographics of a new variant are - in Denmark omicron is hugely skewed towards 20-somethings so you have to allow for that when drawing conclusions based on numbers not adjusted for population structure.

And it is just too soon to say. It typically takes 28 days to die from Covid, but eg Denmark saw its first case only 3 weeks ago, UK first reported cases a few days later (although it's not clear when they tested AFAIK). Sometimes you just need to give it time. Of course any deaths at this stage are going to be of people who are extra vulnerable, because that's the kind of person who dies in under 3 weeks from Covid.

[Bouleversee]

Thanks H. As you say, really bad timing. We'll see what transpires.

I can't help thinking that if they did get Covid and were hospitalised, the old and vulnerable would be helped on their way p.d.q. in order to make way for younger people.

[pje16]

what a euphemism... on their way

[1nvest]

Will be a interesting list/record of those MP's that support/vote-for compulsory vaccination - in preparation for pulling out prior/during the next GE campaign period. Many might find themselves being de-listed on that vote alone.

I wasn't aware "compulsory vaccination" was even being voted on.

For care workers it was mandated a month or so ago. More recently the move is towards NHS staff also. Common expressions are that there are lots of job opportunities elsewhere for those who cannot or do not wish to comply ... inducing shortages/poorer services.

[1nvest]

So getting a booster to better protect/avoid contracting Omicron, a relatively mild/non-fatal version that might otherwise have protected you from other more deadlier variants ... is a key government priority.

There comes a point where one must reasonably conclude that an apparent serial failure to understand is less a failure to understand than a requirement to not understand, pursuant to an ideological cause.

You so sure that Omicron isn't a gift from nature, a relatively mild, better defence against alternative more aggressive strains that some suggest it protects against better than any existing vaccines? Could equally say that some are so single minded/self opinionated beyond all else. You must be a MP?

[XFool]

I wasn't aware "compulsory vaccination" was even being voted on.

For care workers it was mandated a month or so ago. More recently the move is towards NHS staff also. Common expressions are that there are lots of job opportunities elsewhere for those who cannot or do not wish to comply ... inducing shortages/poorer services.

This is a requirement for vaccination, not "compulsory vaccination".

[Mike4]

what a euphemism... on their way

You mean like the "ring of protection" that nice Mr Hancock ensured was "thrown around our care homes" last time around?

[1nvest]

JOHANNESBURG: As the Omicron variant sweeps through South Africa , Dr Unben Pillay is seeing dozens of sick patients a day. Yet he hasn't had to send anyone to the hospital.

That's one of the reasons why he, along with other doctors and medical experts, suspect that the Omicron version really is causing milder Covid-19 than Delta , even if it seems to be spreading faster. “They are able to manage the disease at home," Pillay said of his patients.

Most have recovered within the 10 to 14-day isolation And that includes older patients and those with health problems that can make them more vulnerable to becoming severely ill from a coronavirus infection, he said.

Other doctors have shared similar stories.

[XFool]

There comes a point where one must reasonably conclude that an apparent serial failure to understand is less a failure to understand than a requirement to not understand, pursuant to an ideological cause.

You so sure that Omicron isn't a gift from nature, a relatively mild, better defence against alternative more aggressive strains that some suggest it protects against better than any existing vaccines?

That "some suggest"? I wonder what that actually means?

Then again, how do these "some" suggest such "better defence against alternative more aggressive strains" is acquired? By the human immune system, perhaps? But then, how is it these "some" are so sure such a defence cannot be acquired by the vaccine "booster"? Which works, as do all vaccines, by stimulating the human immune system...

Meanwhile, how would these "some" propose we deal with the increase in hospital cases in the meantime, caused by Omicron cases? Something that obviously wouldn't be the case if such immunological defence were acquired through vaccination instead.

How also are these "some" so very certain immunity gained by the spread of Omicron would, in fact, be effective against "more aggressive strains"? Also, let us remember the more actual cases of 'natural' COVID in the population the greater the risk of mutations arising.

Could equally say that some are so single minded/self opinionated beyond all else. You must be a MP?

Sounds to me more likely the "opinionated" can be found amongst MPs. Possibly we should seek them amongst the 1922 Committee?

[Julian]

There comes a point where one must reasonably conclude that an apparent serial failure to understand is less a failure to understand than a requirement to not understand, pursuant to an ideological cause.

You so sure that Omicron isn't a gift from nature, a relatively mild, better defence against alternative more aggressive strains that some suggest it protects against better than any existing vaccines? Could equally say that some are so single minded/self opinionated beyond all else. You must be a MP?

Aaaarggghhh. This is getting so frustrating. Forgive me if I am putting the wrong words in your mouth XFool but it seems pretty clear to me that XFool is not saying that he is “… so sure that Omicron isn't … relatively mild …” he is saying that we do not have enough data yet to make that call. It might be relatively mild compared to Delta or it might not. Is it that so hard to understand and accept given the inherent delays in disease progression as already pointed out here by numerous people?

- Julian

[1nvest]

For care workers it was mandated a month or so ago. More recently the move is towards NHS staff also. Common expressions are that there are lots of job opportunities elsewhere for those who cannot or do not wish to comply ... inducing shortages/poorer services.

This is a requirement for vaccination, not "compulsory vaccination".

As in the Deer Hunter optionality of betting on Russian Roulette single bullet revolver spins - or be shot for not partaking. Even more convinced you must be a MP.

[XFool]

Aaaarggghhh. This is getting so frustrating. Forgive me if I am putting the wrong words in your mouth XFool but it seems pretty clear to me that XFool is not saying that he is “… so sure that Omicron isn't … relatively mild …” he is saying that we do not have enough data yet to make that call. It might be relatively mild compared to Delta or it might not. It that so hard to understand and accept given the inherent delays in disease progression as already pointed out here by numerous people.

Exactly so.

Plus, in the words of Tomas Pueyo:

There’s an additional factor that matters: The Scary Virus Paradox. There’s an interaction between these two: a virus with high transmission rates but low fatality rates might end up killing more people than if the virus has higher fatality rates."

Getting some people to understand this simple and clear point appears as difficult as getting some to understand the significance of "infectious" in the midst of a global pandemic.

The Omicron Question

https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo ... n-question

[TUK020]

One other key data point:
Level of immunity that infection from Omicron and recovery provides against other variants

So getting a booster to better protect/avoid contracting Omicron, a relatively mild/non-fatal version that might otherwise have protected you from other more deadlier variants ... is a key government priority.

I'd suggest that having wild xmas 'pox parties', sharing it around, maybe a few days off across the new year with a 'cold', maximise the 'tidal wave', would have been best for both the people and the economy. But not so good for those making mega $$$'s out of the whole issue.

"relatively mild/non-fatal version" ??? this is the point that redsturgeon was saying was the big unknown.
"might otherwise have protected" ??? was the additional big unknown that I was adding

[XFool]

This is a requirement for vaccination, not "compulsory vaccination".

As in the Deer Hunter optionality of betting on Russian Roulette single bullet revolver spins - or be shot for not partaking.

Unlike in The Deer Hunter, it isn't those taking park who likely end up dead, is it?

Even more convinced you must be a MP.

Are you a member of the 1922 Committee?

[TUK020]

JOHANNESBURG: As the Omicron variant sweeps through South Africa , Dr Unben Pillay is seeing dozens of sick patients a day. Yet he hasn't had to send anyone to the hospital.

That's one of the reasons why he, along with other doctors and medical experts, suspect that the Omicron version really is causing milder Covid-19 than Delta , even if it seems to be spreading faster. “They are able to manage the disease at home," Pillay said of his patients.

Most have recovered within the 10 to 14-day isolation And that includes older patients and those with health problems that can make them more vulnerable to becoming severely ill from a coronavirus infection, he said.

Other doctors have shared similar stories.

Three reasons we need to be careful about extrapolating early data on virulence of Omicron from South Africa, to infer what will happen here:

a) It is very early days. Time lags involved in infection -> hospitalisation -> death means we have a very incomplete picture thus far.
b) Demographics. The average age of subsaharan Africa is about 20. Very different here.
c) Immune system exposure. In the UK, the majority of people have some degree of immune protection as a result of vaccination. In South Africa, it is highly likely that the majority of people have some immune system training from prior strain infection. We really don't know enough about what the differences will mean.

We are back to the points made earlier about the "Big Unknowns".

[servodude]

This is a requirement for vaccination, not "compulsory vaccination".

As in the Deer Hunter optionality of betting on Russian Roulette single bullet revolver spins - or be shot for not partaking. Even more convinced you must be a MP.

If you don't want to partake in COVID might I suggest locking yourself in an airtight box?
Needs to be airtight to keep out the aerosols (or indeed to keep one in)
Try it for a few days
-sd

[Steveam]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -christmas

I like experts but one has to read carefully and sensational number reaching is irritating. “Could reach 1 million infections per day” is exactly equivalent to “Could not …” but is much scarier. Although I approve of precautionary measures I do wish the media (and some experts) would avoid sensationalism. It’s manipulative and counter productive.

The substance of the article is quite good and emphasises the uncertainty.

Best wishes,

Steve

[1nvest]

As in the Deer Hunter optionality of betting on Russian Roulette single bullet revolver spins - or be shot for not partaking. Even more convinced you must be a MP.

If you don't want to partake in COVID might I suggest locking yourself in an airtight box?
Needs to be airtight to keep out the aerosols (or indeed to keep one in)
Try it for a few days
-sd

89 year old mother contracted covid back in January, barely a snivel. Unvaccinated mid 20's son contracted it in July, shared the same house/living-room with no precautions for the required lock-in period and neither myself or his older brother contracted it.

The aerosols are those that insist that everyone else should comply with what they opine to be appropriate actions, 65+ million give up 2 or more years of life for the questionable benefit to a small number. The sacrificed 130 million person years is a massive over payment for the number of years it might have added for a relatively small percentage of the population. If not person years cost effective (and instead a massive cost), where else is there apparent benefit?

147K UK deaths associated to covid across two years when 1.2M deaths would have been recorded naturally over the same period is a case of a massive disruption for many for the benefit of relatively few. Broken relationships, suicides, failed early diagnosis of cancers, elderly in care homes as good as (for many) life imprisoned into near solitary confinement, not being able to say goodbye to those passing, or not permitted to pay respects at the burial of those having passed etc. etc. Made more obscene by massive profiteering by individuals in government, pharmacists and pharmaceuticals ...etc. In your world you should consider whether it should be those to be dispatched to your fascist system gas chamber.

[Julian]

Apologies for the Daily Mail link. BBC2 Newsnight just reported the results of this study so I searched for the source and only found 2 links, one (NY Times) behind a paywall and this one so it’s all I have right now.

Anyway, South Africa has just released a report on risk of hospital admission seen during the first wave (driven by original variant), second wave (driven by the Beta variant), the third wave (driven by the Delta variant) and this latest Omicron-driven wave. The results are relative to the risk in wave one which is considered to be the 1.0 reference point. The results for adults are (numbers are approximate because I had to read them off a bar graph in the article)…

Beta: 1.1
Delta: 0.95
Omicron: 0.7

[ Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... level.html }

All the usual caveats apply about South African data not necessarily being translatable across to expected UK outcomes. Also these are interim results and I haven’t dug down into method, definitions, data set sizes etc. Even if the SA data looks robust and does translate well to the UK I find these results slightly worrying. The net figure being quoted is 20% less chance of hospital admission for Omicron vs Delta for adults. If Omicron cases do run riot in the UK such that we do have a huge surge in total case numbers is 20% less severe(*) really enough “headroom” to stop our hospitals becoming overwhelmed?

This is only interim data so if it is overly pessimistic, or we do much better in the UK maybe because the booster program outruns the spread of Omicron at least in terms of protecting against severe illness, or the growth in infections hits a wall and starts levelling off sooner than expected then we might still be OK but to all those people simply assuming Omicron is mild, and by that you need to actually be assuming that it is sufficiently milder such that the reduced hospitalisation rate offsets any increase in total number of infections (hospitalising 1% of 200 is the same as hospitalising 2% of 100 - percentages made up for illustrative purposes), I take this as indication that we are still in the process of trying to collect enough data to get an even half-way reliable number to plug into the modelling and there is still significant cause for concern.

- Julian

(*) To very crudely and selectively I pluck out and characterise a headline number.