The Lemon Fool

UncleEbenezer wrote:Devon 1.2 million according to statista. One of England's biggest populations excluding those classified as metropolitan.

Your stats may be rural areas only. Though I'm not sure that quite works either: Plymouth has well north of quarter of a million, and Exeter and Torbay each have around half that, which would on the face of it leave rather less than 800k for the rural parts. Maybe it's that government map, which curiously lumps Exeter in with the rural parts while separating out (slightly smaller) Torbay.

Turns out my figure was for the 'non metropolitan county' whereas yours are for 'ceremonial county'.
Which doesn't leave me much the wiser, to be honest.
The Coronavirus page implies an over-18 population of ~330k for what they list as Dorset, which seems to exclude Plymouth and Torbay, but include Exeter.
The over-18 population for Manchester is implied as ~511k.

Unless I've messed up the sums, something seems off with the numbers.
Downloading the data in full gives an implied adult population of ~53.5 million, of which ~34 million have received a first dose, with a first dose rate of 63.7%, not 71.2%, and a second dose rate of 37.3%, not 41.4%.
Edit: I think this is England + Scotland only, excluding Wales + Northern Ireland. The figures for England only seem to be 63.2% and 37.1%.

Assuming the above numbers (63.7% and 37.3%) are the correct 1st and 2nd dose stats for England and Scotland, then of the 347 lower local authority regions:

• 73.8% by number are reporting above average first dose vaccination rates
• 67.8% by number are reporting above average second dose vaccination rates
• 60.7% of the population live in a LLA with above average first dose rates
• 56.0% of the population live in a LLA with above average second dose rates

If correct, that would support the idea that there are a smaller number of very large (by population) areas with very low levels of vaccination rates.

murraypaul wrote:Edit: I think this is England + Scotland only, excluding Wales + Northern Ireland. The figures for England only seem to be 63.2% and 37.1%.

The nation level stats given from the official page are:

There are no figures for Wales or Northern Ireland.

murraypaul wrote:

murraypaul wrote:Edit: I think this is England + Scotland only, excluding Wales + Northern Ireland. The figures for England only seem to be 63.2% and 37.1%.

The nation level stats given from the official page are:

There are no figures for Wales or Northern Ireland.

A not insignificant descrepancy from the much touted 71% and 41%!

Looking at the qualifications on the vaccination data site, I note that:

For English areas, only people who have an NHS number and are currently alive are included. The denominator used is the number of people on the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS) database.

Well, its a relief that the dead are not being counted. I have no idea how many people do not have an NHS number so I'll leave that.

The really interesting number is the denominator being used.

According to the curiously inexact NIMS site it is More than 60m people :

https://www.scwcsu.nhs.uk/services/nhs- ... t-service/

The UK population is about 67m. At a stroke we may have a possible reason for the discrepancy. You don't have to be on the NIMS database to get vaccinated either.

Lies, damn lies and statistics?

77ss wrote:The really interesting number is the denominator being used.

According to the curiously inexact NIMS site it is More than 60m people :

https://www.scwcsu.nhs.uk/services/nhs- ... t-service/

The UK population is about 67m. At a stroke we may have a possible reason for the discrepancy. You don't have to be on the NIMS database to get vaccinated either.

Lies, damn lies and statistics?

Only over 18s are counted for the vaccination percentages.

Its confusing.

The coronavirus dashboard says the 71% / 41% are relative to the adult population.

With 67.6 total population and about 13-14m under 18's, I make that about 53-54m adults in the UK.

If you take the total number of 1st dose vaccinations (37.7m) and divide by 71%, you get 53m!

So I am pretty sure the dashboard stats refer to adults in the UK (or local authority).

Only just re-found this thread. The answer to the conundrum was on More Or Less on Radio 4 this morning (available on BBC Sounds, obvs).

Basically the local rates use a different value for "adult population" than the national figure.

The local one is from NIMS (National Immunisation Management Service) and probably over-estimates the population since it may double-count people registered with more than one GP (especially students) and those who have moved away without reregistering. This will make the "percentage vaccinated" lower.

The national one uses the ONS figure for the adult population in 2019, so is probably lower than the actual figure. This makes the "percentage vaccinated" higher.

The answer's probably in the middle somewhere...

Scott.