SKYSHIP wrote:I have always specialised in the REIT sector. As I state in the Header to the CP+ thread, the commercial property thread over at ADVFN:
“The commercial property sector can provide rich pickings for VALUE investors prepared to spend a little time analysing the principal metrics of Yield, NAV discount and LTV; then delving into the detail of financing, tenant mix, lease lengths, sector spread, geographical spread.
The sector can be a profitable and to a degree a predictable sector to trawl – provided you can call the savage bear markets that can and do overtake the sector from time to time!
It is a sector relatively immune to the conventional trading company risks of competitor action, margin erosion, contract losses and all the other routine and unpredictable problems that so beset industrial companies.”
Well, since Q3’22 the sector has endured one of those savage bear markets, though on this occasion steep but mercifully short. The sharp increase in interest rates rapidly undermined valuations as surveyors found a sudden lack of transactional activity upon which to base their estimates. Due to the political and economic upheavals in H2’22, they valued in seemingly over-cautious mode.
The CPRE monthly stats and the Q1’23 NAV valuations so far revealed, suggest we have turned the corner and NAVs are improving, with sentiment suggesting more to come throughout ’23.
Personally I won’t touch the quasi residential sector suggested above; but I find plenty of value elsewhere:
# API – 55.5p – Discount 34.6% - Yield 7.21%
# EBOX – 64.9p – Discount 46.8% - Yield 6.81%
# SERE – 83.4p – Discount 29.3% - Yield 7.85%
# SREI – 46.65p – Discount 24.8% - Yield 7.02%
The two middle ones both have their portfolios in continental Europe. One has almost the highest discount in the sector; one almost the highest yield.
Mark88man - might I suggest you start your research with those two. There are excellent Presentations available on both - see the relevant ADVFN threads.
If you specialise in the REIT sector, I defer to your presumably better knowledge than I have but are surveyors not valuing most REITs on DCF?
If so then to a large extent valuations are almost dictated for them by the level of interest rates. Maybe you can clarify that?
Thanks
Dod