26th March 2020 919 Pass Away in Italy

[AsleepInYorkshire]

9,134 people have now died in Italy due to Covid 19.

Great sadness.

I'm going to enjoy my isolation - I'm not keen on the alternative.

Take care

AiYn'U

[AsleepInYorkshire]

It seems terrible to talk about people's deaths in a statistical way and I apologise unreservedly if anyone feels it's just not right.

However, I think this chart may indicate that the number of people dying from Covid 19 in the UK is actually on the higher trajectory of scientists predictions. Hopefully I am wrong.

The larger world picture is here

AiYn'U

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Yesterday 260 people passed away in the UK because of C19, with a total now of 1,019.

Intense grief and sadness for so many. And it's going to get worse.

AiYn'U

[redsturgeon]

It seems terrible to talk about people's deaths in a statistical way and I apologise unreservedly if anyone feels it's just not right.

However, I think this chart may indicate that the number of people dying from Covid 19 in the UK is actually on the higher trajectory of scientists predictions. Hopefully I am wrong.

The larger world picture is here

AiYn'U

Why does that graph make you think that?

John

[AsleepInYorkshire]

It seems terrible to talk about people's deaths in a statistical way and I apologise unreservedly if anyone feels it's just not right.

However, I think this chart may indicate that the number of people dying from Covid 19 in the UK is actually on the higher trajectory of scientists predictions. Hopefully I am wrong.

The larger world picture is here

AiYn'U

Why does that graph make you think that?

John

It looks a lot more steep than the "bump" we're supposed to be aiming at. It actually looks similar to Italy's I think.

AiYn'U

[redsturgeon]

Why does that graph make you think that?

John

It looks a lot more steep than the "bump" we're supposed to be aiming at. It actually looks similar to Italy's I think.

AiYn'U

Yes like all countries we are pretty much on the same exponential path and will be until we are not. It is not possible looking at this type of graph to see what is about to happen, until it happens. China and South Korea and Singapore were all on the same track, until they dropped off. It remains to be seen whether we follow Italy.

John

[redsturgeon]

With today's 250 deaths for the UK , doubling every three days we can expect a daily total of about 1000 by next weekend.

John

[AsleepInYorkshire]

With today's 250 deaths for the UK , doubling every three days we can expect a daily total of about 1000 by next weekend.

John

Yes. That's where the I felt the graph was going ... a tragic route and I hope it's nothing more than me over analysing.

AiYn'U

[SalvorHardin]

It seems terrible to talk about people's deaths in a statistical way and I apologise unreservedly if anyone feels it's just not right.

No problem. I'm a retired Actuary and statistical models of death and illness are part of our trade.

A key point is that the vast majority of Coronavirus deaths are of elderly people with serious health conditions. This isn't a major killer of healthy people, unlike the Spanish flu. Italy messes up its statistics by classifying all deaths as by coronavirus if the person tested positive for it (even if they died in a car crash).

A cure is coming. I've just seen reports that in the UK they are starting to use antibodies from people who've recovered to treat those affected. Testing will increase, identifying those who've recovered but were never reported.

The lockdown should cause the deaths per day to start levelling off in the next couple of weeks. Then decline. That's how epidemics proceed.