Who's next for Number 10?

[Beerpig]

Having watched the performance of the PM over the last week (and especially her non appearance yesterday and subsequent car crash of an interview) I will not be alone thinking it is very unlikely she will survive until the end of the month never mind until the next (scheduled) election. This means there is money to be made by correctly identifying the next incumbent of Number 10.
Who will it be? The individual must be-as far as this is possible- the overall choice of the right and the left and the person who will do least worst for the party at the next election. All sorts of names are being mentioned including Rishi (strangely silent and the hot favourite) to Boris (being backed) Mordnaunt (good performance yesterday- also being backed) Hunt (denies he's interested but bound to be) and Ben Wallace (also quiet but outsider.)
I may be wrong but I believe the next PM will be drawn from these names.
Red line through Boris, busted flush and too many enemies within. Red line through Rishi- if he was going to do it, he would have been elected first time round. Its between Hunt and Morduant in my view. Some good odds to be had but which one?
Oh for tomorrows news today.

[nimnarb]

I may have missed it from afar but did she ever give a reason or does anyone know what was her excuse for not being in the house yesterday, as she had something very important to do?

[Clariman]

Should this not be on the CAN board given that it is firmly politics?

[terminal7]

Betfair odds are:

Rishi 3 (ie 2/1)
Hunt 5.8
Johnson 13
Morduant 5.4
Wallace 11.5

Now do remember after KK got the chop initially Hunt was not even in the list of prospective candidates for CotE- yet some £25k was placed on Hunt in the 2 hours before the announcement.

Believe it or not May's odds have tumbled down from 180 to 23.

FWIW - Hunt no chance - is hated by most of the party and he was the first chopped in the recent MP's poll with I think 8 votes. Also has a poor record as Minister and Johnson will do everything (even if he is not running) to stop him. At this stage my money would be on Mordaunt - just failed to get in last two and gave very polished performance yesterday in the HoC.

T7

[Beerpig]

Hi Clariman
I thought it was okay here because it is not about politics but punting.

[Dod101]

I may have missed it from afar but did she ever give a reason or does anyone know what was her excuse for not being in the house yesterday, as she had something very important to do?

She did not as far as I know give any reason but it is I think accepted that she was with Sir Graham Brady of the 1922 Committee.

Dod

[terminal7]

I may have missed it from afar but did she ever give a reason or does anyone know what was her excuse for not being in the house yesterday, as she had something very important to do?

She did not as far as I know give any reason but it is I think accepted that she was with Sir Graham Brady of the 1922 Committee.

Dod

Dod

That's what I read - but then I thought I saw Brady on the Con benches during the 'urgent' question.

T7

[Dod101]

She did not as far as I know give any reason but it is I think accepted that she was with Sir Graham Brady of the 1922 Committee.

Dod

Dod

That's what I read - but then I thought I saw Brady on the Con benches during the 'urgent' question.

T7

Others may have more to contribute. I too saw him in the House but I found a neatly timed explanation as to why he arrived before Truss.

We may never know for sure.

Dod

[Hallucigenia]

Others may have more to contribute. I too saw him in the House but I found a neatly timed explanation as to why he arrived before Truss.

We may never know for sure.

Oh, these things come out, even if it's not until the books are published by the various parties involved after they leave politics.

Brady is visible onscreen in the chamber from 15:30, he disappears some time between 21:01 and 22:32 on the iPlayer version so presumably about 15:52. Truss left No 10 at 16:00 and appeared in the chamber at 16:28 (57:37 to be precise) where she watched Hunt's statement for half an hour or so.

So it's plausible that she asked to see him in her office in the Palace of Westminster at 16:00, for a short meeting of 10-15 minutes which she was a bit late for.

But it was slightly more important that she answered to the house rather than listen to Hunt's speech - she could have rearranged Brady to be after her time in the Commons - unless it had a direct bearing on what she would say. And even then she could have seen him earlier in the day.

It's also a sad sign of the times that even though there is a Deputy PM, they were having to hide Thérèse Coffey from the public because she's thick as mince and had just admitted in public to supplying controlled substances without authorisation. Even so it's a bit weird calling on the Leader of the Commons to represent her - I know in theory she's near the toip of the pecking order based on also being Lord President of the Council but can you imagine Thatcher telling Norman St John-Stevas or John MacGregor "I don't fancy this, would you do it for me?", or Cameron getting Chris Grayling to speak on his behalf?

It's just terrible leadership. And then to turn up whilst Mordaunt was still speaking was just extraordinary - if it had been Churchill he would have pushed her down, he would be so eager to speak. Instead she just sat there smirking - if I was Labour I would have starting clucking like a chicken...

On the other hand, one can sympathise with her advisors trying to keep her quiet during market hours - having seen how badly the Chris Mason interview went, in the relative calm of a 1:1 format.

[scotia]

a brief question - can the PM request the dissolution of parliament, or does it require confirmation by a parliamentary vote?
I know that this was discussed when the bill was passed which ended the earlier fixed length parliament bill - but I don't know what the outcome was.
In other words - could a disgruntled PM take the whole of the party down with them?

[ReformedCharacter]

I try to ignore a lot of the political news but did watch the Chris Mason interview mentioned upthread by Hallucigenia. Well actually I only watched the first 8 minutes, I couldn't manage any more. That is the worst interview given by a Prime Minister that I have ever seen. I've seen some politicians perform pretty poorly but that one is in a completely different category of awfulness. The sooner the Conservatives pick another leader the better, the current one is holed beneath the water-line.

RC

[Hallucigenia]

a brief question - can the PM request the dissolution of parliament, or does it require confirmation by a parliamentary vote?
I know that this was discussed when the bill was passed which ended the earlier fixed length parliament bill - but I don't know what the outcome was.
In other words - could a disgruntled PM take the whole of the party down with them?

In theory it's up to the monarch to dissolve Parliament by proclamation, in practice (s)he does it in response to a request by the PM. So yep, it's ultimately up to the PM, unless they lose a confidence vote. Supposedly that was one of Johnson's tactics when he was trying to cling on to power earlier this year.

It could be argued that it would be less taking the party down with them, and more speeding up the process of renewal.....

[scotia]

It could be argued that it would be less taking the party down with them, and more speeding up the process of renewal

Yes -but are there waiting in the wings some educated, experienced candidates who wish to become Conservative MPs? And if they spoke the truth as to how the country got itself into this state, would they manage to pass through the selection panels? Do you see anyone getting rid of the ERG?

[Lootman]

Do you see anyone getting rid of the ERG?

Hasn't Labour effectively got rid of Momentum? Just like Kinnock and Blair got rid of Militant Tendency?

[servodude]

It could be argued that it would be less taking the party down with them, and more speeding up the process of renewal

Yes -but are there waiting in the wings some educated, experienced candidates who wish to become Conservative MPs? And if they spoke the truth as to how the country got itself into this state, would they manage to pass through the selection panels? Do you see anyone getting rid of the ERG?

Would you want them to?
Why not let them schism to bits, form a minority government and reform the bejeesus out the whole sorry trough?

The train was off the tracks quite some time ago

[MrFoolish]

Should this not be on the CAN board given that it is firmly politics?

Never you mind... we used to come 'ere when it was all fields!

[Hallucigenia]

Yes -but are there waiting in the wings some educated, experienced candidates who wish to become Conservative MPs? And if they spoke the truth as to how the country got itself into this state, would they manage to pass through the selection panels? Do you see anyone getting rid of the ERG?

These things take time - the next election wouldn't be until 2027 and the lesson of 1976 & 1992 is that a loss of confidence on this scale takes at least two elections if not three to shake off. So then you'd be looking at 2032 or 2037 - those MPs could still be at university, even school.

"Getting rid of the ERG" is part of the process of renewal and will take time - remember that they still went for IDS and Howard before they decided that winning is quite nice. The more self-aware will know that they've lost for a generation and slip away to the City or to make documentaries about train travel, some may try to keep the flame burning inside the Tories before defecting to the Reform Party, hopefully by the 2030s the Tories will have been purged of the worst of the loonies but it won't be much before then.

[Hallucigenia]

Do you see anyone getting rid of the ERG?

There was a little sign of the waning of the power of the ERG today in PMQs - supposedly in a meeting last night she promised them a hard line on Northern Ireland, no involvement of the ECJ etc, yet when David Jones tried to put that on the record at PMQs she flanneled. Which of course she's going to do, as there's no way we are going to have a trade war with the EU in the current circumstances.

And now the ERG are all offended because she "overpromised" to them - now they know how it feels.

Also this from Peston, after Javid withdrew the question he was going to ask after topping the ballot for PMQs :
Here is the measure of the chaos in Downing St. Ex chancellor @sajidjavid was incandescent about briefing that he’s incompetent to Sunday Times. He blamed Truss’s adviser Jason Stein [the one that used to advise Prince Andrew] and was planning to humiliate the PM by asking a question about Stein at #PMQs.

After talking to cabinet secretary Simon Case, Javid said his condition for not hijacking #PMQs is Stein would be suspended and there should be investigation by Cabinet Office’s Propriety and Ethics committee. Stein has duly been suspended and probe is happening.

But it won’t end there, because Stein is confident he cannot be sanctioned for what happened, which carries the implication others in Downing St are to blame. No wonder so many Tory MPs say Truss simply cannot continue in office.

[terminal7]

Brandon Lewis is considering standing. I demand that the ballot V2 is changed.

T7

[pje16]

I voted for Rishi
but I hope Mordaunt wins (spelt correctly here)